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Schriftliche Antwort (Beilage) - Réponse écrite (annexe)

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Das BAV hält bereits in den 2030er-Jahren Liquiditätsengpässe im BIF für möglich, selbst bei einer Erhöhung der Mehrwertsteuer.
Welche Bahnprojekte müssten nach heutiger Planung verschoben werden, wenn dieser Fall eintritt?

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Die Finanzierung des Nationalstrassen- und Agglomerationsverkehrsfonds NAF und des Bahninfrastrukturfonds BIF ist dank zweckgebundener Einnahmen gesichert. Die Bundesämter für Strassen und für Verkehr haben im Januar 2025 auf Basis der damaligen Fondsprognosen ermittelt, wie viele Mittel bis 2045 voraussichtlich für Ausbauten zur Verfügung stehen. In den Prognosen sind die Mittel für den Substanzerhalt berücksichtigt. Die ETH Zürich hat basierend auf diesen Angaben eine Priorisierung vorgenommen. Zur Eröffnung der Vernehmlassung zu «Verkehr ’45» am 19. Juni 2026 wurden die Fondsimulationen von BIF und NAF aktualisiert. Für die Botschaft an das Parlament ist eine erneute Aktualisierung der Prognosen vorgesehen.

Zur Finanzierung des geplanten Bahnausbaus sieht der Bundesrat vor, das aktuell bis 2030 befristete Mehrwertsteuerpromille als Einnahmequelle für den BIF unbeschränkt fortzuführen. Damit ist sichergestellt, dass die im BIF erwarteten Einnahmen insgesamt ausreichen, um die geplanten Ausgaben zu decken. Die Planung des Bundesrats trägt dabei den einnahmen- und ausgabenseitigen Unsicherheiten Rechnung.

Weil mehrere grosse Bauprojekte gleichzeitig in die Realisierungsphase kommen, könnte im BIF ein Liquiditätsengpass entstehen. In den vergangenen Jahren hat sich aber gezeigt, dass mehrjährige Verzögerungen bei Grossprojekten die Regel sind. Grund dafür sind beispielsweise langwierige Einsprache- und Beschwerdeverfahren oder komplexe Enteignungsverfahren. Falls notwendig, könnten Projekte nach hinten verschoben werden. Einnahmenseitig könnte eine Vorfinanzierung eine zeitliche Verschiebung von Projekten vermeiden. Dass sich der BIF nicht verschuldet, ist über die jährliche Mittelfreigabe über den Voranschlag gewährleistet.

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Tile size shows how often a word is used.","topics_all_time","All time","topics_last_4y","Last 4 years","topics_last_8y","Last 8 years","topics_from","topics_to","topics_speeches","topics_words","words (filtered)","topics_distinct","distinct words","topics_uses","uses","topics_alt","Treemap of the {count} most-used words, sized by how often each is used. {ctx}","topics_table_alt","Table of the {count} most-used words and how often each is used. {ctx}","topics_table_toggle","Show as table","topics_table_word","Word","topics_empty","No speeches with usable text in this period. Try widening the range.","loyalty_title","Party loyalty","loyalty_subtitle","Share of a member's votes cast against their group's majority line (higher = more independent). Abstentions count as a position.","loyalty_axis","Dissent rate: share of votes against own group","loyalty_dissent","dissent","loyalty_ballots","votes","loyalty_empty","No votes in this period meet the thresholds for a loyalty score. Widen the range.","loyalty_chart_alt","Beeswarm plot of the dissent rate of {count} members, one dot per member, coloured by party. {ctx}","loyalty_table_alt","Table of {count} members with their votes, dissents and dissent rate. {ctx}","loyalty_col_member","loyalty_col_party","loyalty_col_group","loyalty_col_ballots","loyalty_col_dissents","Against","loyalty_col_rate","Dissent","loyalty_from","loyalty_to","loyalty_scale","Scale","loyalty_scale_log","Log","loyalty_scale_linear","Linear","loyalty_filters","Filters","cohesion_title","Group cohesion","cohesion_hint","mean Agreement Index (1 = unanimous)","section_alignment","Voting alignment","no_alignment","Not enough shared votes to compare.","view_all_alignment","View full alignment","alignment_agreed_of_shared","agreed on {agreed} of {shared} shared votes","sort_agreement","Agreement","sort_shared","Shared votes","facet_min_shared","Min. shared","min_shared_10","≥ 10","min_shared_20","≥ 20","min_shared_50","≥ 50","min_shared_100","≥ 100","section_body_alignment","body_alignment_subtitle","How members of this chamber vote relative to one another, from the votes they have in common. In the map, members who vote alike sit close together and opponents far apart. Colours are parties, so blocs and coalitions show up as clusters. The grid gives the average agreement between each pair of parties (the diagonal is each party's own internal cohesion).","alignment_from","alignment_to","alignment_view","View","alignment_view_scatter","Map","alignment_view_heatmap","Party grid","alignment_empty","Not enough votes in this window to build the model.","alignment_window_note","Most meaningful within a single legislative period: the model compares members from the votes they have in common. If the window spans an election or a change in composition, members with different terms barely overlap and positions become less comparable.","alignment_no_parties","No party groups to compare in this window.","alignment_scatter_alt","Scatter plot of {count} members placed by how similarly they voted, coloured by party. {ctx}","alignment_pairs","pairs","alignment_heatmap_note","Each cell is the average agreement between members of the two parties (diagonal = a party's internal cohesion). ± is the 95% confidence range and n the number of member-pairs behind it. A small range over many pairs means the alignment is well-established; a wide range means it's only suggestive.","alignment_heatmap_alt","Grid of the average voting agreement between {count} parties. {ctx}","alignment_members_heading","Members","alignment_members_table_alt","Table of {count} members with their agreement with the chamber and with their own party. {ctx}","alignment_col_member","alignment_col_party","alignment_col_votes","alignment_col_chamber","Aligns with chamber","alignment_col_party_align","Within party","alignment_zoom_in","Zoom in","alignment_zoom_out","Zoom out","alignment_zoom_reset","Reset zoom","alignment_filters","section_lobby","Lobby network","lobby_subtitle","The organizations members of this chamber declare in their register of interests, and where those ties overlap. In the network, members are dots (coloured by party) and organizations shared by two or more members are squares. Members who share the same organizations pull together. The breakdown shows how many mandates are paid versus unpaid, and who holds the most.","lobby_empty","No declared interests for this chamber in this window.","lobby_no_shared","No organizations are shared by two or more members here. See the breakdown.","lobby_network_alt","Network graph of {members} members and the {orgs} organizations they share, linked by declared interests. {ctx}","lobby_mandates","mandates","lobby_members_tied","members","lobby_unknown","Unknown","lobby_org_node","Organization","lobby_payment_heading","Paid vs unpaid mandates","lobby_top_orgs","Most-shared organizations","lobby_top_members","Members by mandates","discussion_title","Speech profiles","discussion_intro","Where members sit on a latent axis derived purely from the words they use in their speeches (Wordfish scaling).","discussion_calculating","Scaling speeches…","lobby_calculating","Computing lobby network…","discussion_error","The speech scaling could not be computed.","discussion_converged","Model converged","discussion_not_converged","Model did not fully converge. Read positions with extra caution.","discussion_members_scored","Members scored","discussion_vocab","Vocabulary","discussion_window","Window","discussion_show_all","discussion_show_reliable","Reliable only","discussion_methodology","How this is computed","discussion_range_label","Time range","discussion_range_1y","1 year","discussion_range_2y","2 years","discussion_range_4y","4 years","discussion_range_8y","8 years","discussion_plot_alt","Beeswarm plot of {count} members placed along a word-choice axis, one dot per member. {ctx}","discussion_plot_caption","Each dot is one member, placed by the words they use in their speeches. Members who reach for the same distinctive words sit close together; members who talk very differently sit far apart. So a member's spot isn't assigned by us; it comes out of how they actually speak. For example, someone who keeps saying “tax”, “budget” and “spending” lands far from someone who mostly says “asylum”, “border” and “integration”. Hover any dot for its details. Filled dots have enough speech to place reliably; hollow rings spoke too little, so read their position with caution.","discussion_empty","No speeches are available for this parliament, so its members can't be placed on the axis. This scaling reads the words members actually speak, and the data set only holds speech transcripts for a few parliaments: the federal chambers and a handful of cantons such as Bern, Basel-Stadt or St. Gallen. You can also try a longer time range above.","discussion_empty_sparse","There is too little speech transcript text for this parliament to place its members on the axis. Try a longer time range above.","discussion_pole_a","One pole","discussion_pole_b","Other pole","discussion_col_party","discussion_key_filled","Enough text (reliable)","discussion_key_ring","Below the word floor (low confidence)","discussion_align_title","Does the axis track party?","discussion_align_hint","How much of the spread in positions is explained by party membership (η²): 100% = parties are perfectly separated, ~0% = party tells you nothing.","discussion_align_strong","parties are clearly separated","discussion_align_moderate","parties are partly separated","discussion_align_weak","party barely explains the axis","discussion_poles_title","What the axis is made of","discussion_poles_hint","The words that most pull members towards each pole. The axis only means something once you read these. Its direction is arbitrary.","discussion_no_party","No party","discussion_col_name","discussion_col_position","Position","discussion_col_words","Words","discussion_col_speeches","discussion_low_confidence","low confidence","discussion_table_title","discussion_table_alt","Table of {count} members with their position on the word-choice axis. {ctx}","discussion_read_title","How to read this","discussion_read_direction","The axis direction is arbitrary: Wordfish finds the split, not which side is “left” or “right”. Read the word poles to see what each side means.","discussion_read_uncertainty","Positions are standardized, so the spread is a convention, not a real distance. Wider error bars (and hollow dots) mean less certainty, so don't over-read those members.","discussion_read_confound","Speech style reflects role as much as ideology: committee chairs, ministers and frequent speakers can land at a pole because of what they do, not only what they believe.","organizations_title","organizations_none","No organizations.","org_members","org_mandates","org_bodies","org_members_heading","org_members_table_alt","Table of {count} members with their party, body, role, payment and period. {ctx}","org_no_members","No members.","org_col_member","org_col_party","org_col_body","org_col_role","org_col_payment","Payment","org_col_period","sort_members","sort_mandates","Mandates","interest_unknown","lobby_panel_person","Declared organizations","lobby_panel_org","Members with this mandate","lobby_table_heading","Who is tied to what","lobby_table_explain","The full matrix marks every member against every shared organization: one dot per declared tie, the exhaustive view of who is tied to what.","lobby_table_large","For this chamber that is","lobby_table_cells","cells","lobby_table_show","Show table","lobby_table_alt","Table marking each of {count} members against the {orgs} organizations they are tied to, one dot per declared tie. {ctx}","lobby_select_hint","Select a member or organization to see its ties.","lobby_filters","lobby_error","The lobby network could not be computed.","lobby_clear_selection","Clear selection","close","not_found_person","Person not found","not_found_body","Parliament not found","not_found_affair","Affair not found","not_found_group","Committee or group not found","not_found_voting","Voting not found","not_found_meeting","Meeting not found","not_found_interest","Interest not found","not_found_organization","Organization not found","not_found_text","Text not found","not_found_doc","Document not found","not_found_speech","Speech not found","not_found_hint","There is no entry with the ID {id}. It may have been removed, or the link may be outdated.","not_found_back","Back to the overview","about","About","faq","FAQ","section_title","section_title_bodies","section_title_affairs","section_title_votings","section_title_texts","section_title_docs","section_subtitle_search","section_subtitle_discussion",{"_1628":1629,"_1645":813,"_1646":1647,"_1648":1649,"_1650":1000,"_1329":573,"_19":373,"_146":577,"_1651":580,"_1634":383,"_1652":1653,"_1654":784,"_1436":333,"_142":343,"_1631":485,"_148":353,"_144":583,"_150":363,"_1655":1110,"_1656":1244,"_1657":1279,"_1658":1244,"_1659":1660,"_1661":1244,"_1662":1663,"_1664":573,"_1665":752,"_1666":1244,"_1667":1649,"_1668":577,"_1635":452,"_1669":1670,"_1243":1244,"_1671":690,"_1256":1244,"_140":588,"_1672":1464,"_1673":1321,"_1674":1359,"_1675":1653,"_1676":1448,"_1636":393,"_1677":1440,"_1678":1244},"section_switcher",{"_1626":1627,"_1628":1629,"_1630":333,"_21":529,"_142":343,"_1631":485,"_1632":419,"_19":373,"_150":363,"_1633":353,"_1634":383,"_1635":452,"_1636":393,"_1637":1638,"_1639":1640,"_1641":1642,"_1643":1644},"section_title_speeches","section_title_groups","section_title_interests","section_title_meetings","section_title_organizations","label_section","Section","home","Home","people","affairs","groups","documents","interests","meetings","organizations","group_parliament","Actors","group_proceedings","Proceedings","group_records","Records","group_lobbying","Lobbying","search","eyebrow","Data on {{name}}","overview","Overview","personal_data","memberships","access_badges","Lobby","images","texts_overview","text_details","docs_overview","doc_details","votings_overview","Voting","voting_details","voting_diagram","Diagram","voting_tally","speeches_overview","speech_details","groups_overview","contributions","interests_overview","Interest","meetings_overview","vocabulary","loyalty","alignment","lobby","discussion","organizations_overview","org_details",{"_1735":1736,"_1737":1738,"_1680":1739,"_284":1740},"intro",{"_1682":1683,"_108":1684,"_1685":1686,"_1687":1688,"_1689":1690,"_1691":1692,"_1693":1694},"en",{"_1695":1730,"_1697":1731,"_1699":1732,"_1701":1733,"_1703":1734},{"_1695":1725,"_1697":1726,"_1699":1727,"_1701":1728,"_1703":1729},"fr",{"_1695":1720,"_1697":1721,"_1699":1722,"_1701":1723,"_1703":1724},"it",{"_1695":1715,"_1697":1716,"_1699":1717,"_1701":1718,"_1703":1719},"es",{"_1695":1710,"_1697":1711,"_1699":1712,"_1701":1713,"_1703":1714},"pt",{"_1695":1705,"_1697":1706,"_1699":1707,"_1701":1708,"_1703":1709},"rm",{"_1695":1696,"_1697":1698,"_1699":1700,"_1701":1702,"_1703":1704},"cookie","Nus duvrain mo cookies essenzials e funcziunals. Nagina analitica, nagin tracking.","dataLang","La Svizra ha quatter linguas naziunalas, e questas datas datti en pliras da quellas. Intgins records èn plurilings, auters mo en ina lingua. Vus pudais tscherner en tge lingua ch'il cuntegn vegn mussà; sche vossa tscherna n'è betg disponibla per in record, vegnan duvradas las autras linguas en in urden da prioritad fix. Quai è independent da la lingua da l'interfatscha. As lascha reglar sut Configuraziuns › Lingua dal cuntegn (sura a dretga).","alt","Questa pagina è era disponibla per rumantsch.","switch","Mussar per rumantsch","dismiss","Betg pli mussar","Utilizamos apenas cookies essenciais e funcionais. Sem análises, sem rastreio.","A Suíça tem quatro línguas nacionais, e estes dados existem em várias delas. Alguns registos estão em várias línguas, outros apenas numa. Pode escolher em que idioma os conteúdos são apresentados; quando a sua escolha não está disponível para um registo, as restantes línguas são usadas por uma ordem de prioridade fixa. Isto é independente do idioma da interface. Configure em Definições › Idioma dos conteúdos (canto superior direito).","Esta página também está disponível em português.","Ver em português","Não mostrar novamente","Solo utilizamos cookies esenciales y funcionales. Sin análisis, sin seguimiento.","Suiza tiene cuatro lenguas nacionales, y estos datos existen en varias de ellas. Algunos registros están en varias lenguas, otros en una sola. Puede elegir en qué idioma se muestra el contenido; cuando su elección no está disponible para un registro, se utilizan las demás lenguas en un orden de prioridad fijo. Esto es independiente del idioma de la interfaz. 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Certaines entrées sont en plusieurs langues, d'autres dans une seule. Vous pouvez choisir la langue d'affichage du contenu ; si votre choix n'est pas disponible pour une entrée, les autres langues sont utilisées selon un ordre de priorité défini. Ceci est indépendant de la langue de l'interface. Réglable dans Paramètres › Langue du contenu (en haut à droite).","Cette page est aussi disponible en français.","Voir en français","Ne plus afficher","Wir verwenden nur essenzielle, funktionale Cookies. Keine Analyse, kein Tracking.","Die Schweiz hat vier Landessprachen, und diese Daten liegen in mehreren davon vor. Manche Einträge sind mehrsprachig, andere nur in einer Sprache. Sie können wählen, in welcher Sprache die Inhalte angezeigt werden; ist Ihre Wahl für einen Eintrag nicht verfügbar, werden die übrigen Sprachen in einer festen Prioritätsreihenfolge verwendet. Dies ist unabhängig von der Oberflächensprache. Einstellbar unter Einstellungen › Inhaltssprache (oben rechts).","Diese Seite ist auch auf Deutsch verfügbar.","Auf Deutsch anzeigen","Nicht mehr anzeigen","We use only essential, functional cookies. No analytics, no tracking.","Switzerland has four national languages, and this data comes in several of them. Some records are in multiple languages, some in only one. You can choose which language the content is shown in; when your choice isn't available for a record, the remaining languages are used in a set priority order. This is independent of the interface language. Set it under Settings › Content language (top right).","This page is also available in English.","View in English","Don't show again","settings",{"_1803":1804,"_1805":1806,"_1807":1165,"_1808":1809,"_1810":1167,"_1811":1169,"_1812":1813,"_1814":1815,"_1816":1817,"_1818":1819,"_1820":1821,"_638":639,"_1822":1823,"_1824":1825,"_1826":1827,"_1828":1829,"_1830":1831},"nav",{"_1628":1749,"_1750":1751,"_1752":688,"_1753":1754,"_1755":1756,"_1637":1638,"_1639":1640,"_1641":1642,"_1643":1644,"_1630":333,"_21":529,"_1632":419,"_1631":485,"_142":343,"_1635":452,"_19":373,"_150":363,"_1633":353,"_1634":383,"_1636":393,"_1757":1742,"_1758":1759,"_1606":1607,"_1760":1761,"_1608":1609,"_1762":1763,"_1764":1765,"_1766":1767,"_1768":1769,"_1770":1771,"_1772":1773,"_1774":1775,"_1776":1777,"_1778":1779,"_1780":1781,"_1782":1783,"_1784":1785,"_1786":1787,"_1788":1789,"_1790":1791,"_1792":1793,"_1794":1795,"_1796":1746,"_1797":1798,"_1799":1800,"_1801":1802},{"_1695":1730,"_1697":1731,"_1699":1732,"_1701":1733,"_1703":1734},{"_1741":1742,"_1743":1744,"_1745":1746,"_1747":1748},"project.title","Project","project.desc","About parlhub: what the portal is, answers to common questions, and how the data fits together.","experiments.title","Experiments","experiments.desc","Experimental analyses and methodology showcases on parlhub, including the Wordfish scaling of parliaments from their speeches.","parlhub home","skip_to_content","Skip to main content","explore","start","Start here","start_desc","Quicklinks to chambers, cantons and communes","project","project_desc","The project at a glance","about_desc","What parlhub is and who is behind it","faq_desc","Answers to common questions","sustainability","Sustainability","sustainability_desc","How parlhub is hosted and what it costs the planet","accessibility","Accessibility","accessibility_desc","What works, what doesn't, and how to report a barrier","traffic_stats","Traffic statistics","traffic_stats_desc","Which parts of the site get requested, and by whom","imprint","Imprint","imprint_desc","Who runs parlhub, contact, and the licenses","github","GitHub","github_desc","The project's source code on GitHub","data_guide","Data guide","data_guide_desc","Every kind of data, in plain terms, with examples","data_map","Data map","data_map_desc","How the data fits together, at a glance","methodology","Methodology","methodology_desc","How each figure is calculated, with links to the code","experiments","experiments_desc","Experimental analyses and methodology write-ups","wordfish","Wordfish scaling","wordfish_desc","Placing members on an axis by the words in their speeches","menu_label","Settings","appearance","Appearance","theme","theme_system","System","theme_light","theme_dark","font_size","Font size","font_size_decrease","Decrease font size","font_size_increase","Increase font size","high_contrast","High contrast","grayscale","Grayscale","interface_language","Interface","content_language","Content language","content_language_auto","Auto (follow interface)","content_language_note","Language of the displayed data (names, titles, texts). Independent of the interface; when a record isn't available, the next language is used.","content_language_priority","Priority",{"_1807":1833,"_1812":1834,"_1835":43,"_1836":240,"_1837":240,"_1838":43,"_1839":-5},"system",100,"show_cookie_consent_message","ui_high_contrast","ui_grayscale","msg_lang_hint","content_lang"]